Elasticity of Pecan Market :: essays research papers

The article Big Crop Wont Reduce Pecan Prices is about how the food market for pecans affects the both the wholesale market and the retail market. The article describes how pecans are relatively inelastic around major holidays, such as Thanksgiving and Christmas. It is stated that in that respect was a 150 million pound increase in pecans from the previous year. Since there was such a great increase in quantity supplied, the footing decreased. Since the demand for pecans is relatively inelastic, consumers are not affected by a change in wrong. This article also describes the difference between the wholesale market and the retail market for pecans. Wholesale markets produce the pecans, and sell them to retailers for a suffering price between seventy-five to eighty-five cents per pound. While the retailers purchase the pecans for a low price, they turn around and sell them to consumers for about five times the price they paid for them. The pecan producers direct no control over the prices that they sell the pecans at, and they have no control over the price that the retailers sell the pecans at. The wholesale pecan market is a perfectly competitive market. There are lots of polar suppliers, and its a highly standardized product. The demand and supply curves are relatively inelastic due to the craze for pecans during the holidays. The massive increase in pecans supplied causes the price per pound of pecans to decrease greatly. The graph (on the left) represents the increase in demand. &65532&65532The graph above and off to the right represents the demand and marginal cost for a firm. In the retail market, they have control over the price at which they sell their products to consumers. In the article they state that the firms buy the pecans from wholesale markets for a small price, like eighty-five cents, and then they go off and sell the same pecans for $5.50. A decrease in the price causes a decrease in marginal cost.

Moby Dick - Characters of Captain Ahab and Ishmael :: Moby Dick Essays

The characters of captain Ahab and Ishmael are almost opposites. About the only things the two region in common are that they are both seamen and they both are on a hunt for a whale. Ishmael is a pleasing character, who plays the government agency of the main character as well as narrator. He is a common humanity who has a adore for the sea, and goes to it to clear his mind whenever he feels dismantle or feels that it is a damp, drizzly November in his soul. As for his physical appearance, he doesnt really specify. However, one might assume that he is a middle-aged man and probably holds the characteristics of the stereotypical seaman. But, what the character lacks in physical description, he makes up for with a full personality that his described extensively end-to-end the book. Ishmael is a man who seeks what is best described as inner peace. He is very content with himself when on the water, and has a great love for being a seaman. He joins the ring of the Pequod to satis fy his longing to be back on the ocean, but as it turns out, the particular voyage he is to striation out on is not what he had suspected. For this ship would be commanded by a half-crazed captain in a desperate search for a viscous white whale. Over all, Ishmael is definitely the most civilized and wise man in the story. Captain Ahab is an overwhelmingly intimidating character in the story, and can probably be considered the most deranged of them all. His radical obsession with finding and killing the white whale known as Moby-Dick causes Ishmael and others of the crew to become frightened at his abnormal behavior. Ahabs physical appearance is best described as foreboding and evil. He is a tall man with gray hair, and is missing a leg due to a death-defying confrontation with Moby-Dick himself. His new artificial leg is made from the bone of whale and once again adds to his intimidating form. His personality is also quite mad. He has a maniacal presence about him and would ris k his life and the lives of his crewmen just to fulfill his mission of wan revenge. Melville does a fine job describing this particular character with the utmost extremeness. The characters of Ishmael and Ahab are two that have a great and critical impact on the book.

malaria Essay -- essays research papers

It is one of the ten deadliest diseases of all time. It effects men, women, children, and animals. It is in full force in Africa, India, Asia, China, South America, and the Caribbean. This disease is malaria. Nearly 40 percent of the arenas population lives in areas that are effected by the disease. Malaria is a serious, infectious disease spread by certain mosquitoes. It is caused by infection with the plasmodium genus of the protozoan hirudinean. More than one hundred species of this parasite exist. It is capable of infecting reptiles, birds, rodents, and primates. Four species infect human beings, the most common being P.vivax and P. falciparum. Many animals can draw off malaria but human malaria does not spread to animals. In turn, animal malaria does not spread to humans. A person becomes infected with malaria when bitten by a female mosquito who pocesses the malaria parasite. The parasite enters the blood stream and travels to the liver, where they multiply. When they re-e merge into the blood stream symptoms appear. By the time most symptoms show up, the parasites have reproduced very rapidly, clogging blood vessels and rupturing cells.Malaria cannot be nonchalantly transmitted. Instead an infected mosquito bites someone with it, and then passes the disease on to the next person bit. It is also possible to spread malaria through contaminated needles or in bl...

The Future of Computer Programming :: Essays Papers

The Future of Computer ProgrammingComputers are probably the most important invention of this century if not of all time. proper now people use reckoners for just about everything in the creation and they are becoming a necessity in peoples lives just as some(prenominal) other new technologies. To say you cannot use a computer this day and age is almost like saying you are illiterate. In order for computers to bring and be accessible to people there must be applications or instructions for the computer. In order to make these applications one must write them by scheduling in a certain computer language. These languages are usually somewhat hard to learn and many people shy away from them. As technology has progressed there has been the development of new and easier programming languages but it is still hard for children and others without much computer experience to learn. Since there is this dilemma in the world today, the many computer scientists and computer experts have come together to discuss new ways of approaching the problem. One solution to this problem was the development of opthalmic languages such as Visual C++ and Visual Basic. There also new languages being developed and improved on such as XML and Ruby. numerous other languages are being developed at this moment and someday there will be languages simple enough for everyone to use.The first form of programming appeared about the same time as the invention of one of the first computers in 1942, cognize as the ENIAC. Programming for this was very tedious and required the scenery of switches and rewiring of wires. Programming for this computer progressed after some time but took a major turn in 1957 when the first of the many major languages came about cognize as FORTRAN. FORTRAN was good at scientific programming, but it had no help on the business world. In 1959 a new language called COBOL came about and it became known as the programming language for businesses. In 1958 a language was developed that would have a huge effect on the programming industry. A scientific committee came up with the Algol language which led to creation of the popular languages we have today like C, C++, Java, and Pascal. In 1964 one of the first attempts at qualification a language for non-computer science people was developed by John Kemeny and Thomas Kurtz called BASIC. In 1972 C was created by Dennis Ritchie and probably has had the biggest effect on computer of all the languages.

Essay --

First Amendment Rights During War Considering that the 1st Amendment of the Constitution guarantees freedom of speech, sess and should government regulate hate speech, or seek to address the impairment it causes? Based on a premise that there is no such a thing as absolute right or absolute freedom, we can infer that a government can and should regulate any speech and seek to address the harm it causes but the real issue is -- where, when, and how can it be regulated? Trying to balance both, freedom of speech and the fear of an inflammatory press report, the Supreme Court has produced probably the most famous legalistic test -- perish and present danger. The underlying idea is that bureaucrats cannot punish a speaker/writer unless he/she creates a clear and present danger to others. Theoretically, this standard appears to be encouraging of the right to speak freely. However, in practice, it is difficult to determine when the danger was clear enough for an average report er, how remote it could be and yet still be considered present, and how incisively hazardous the danger should be to justify suppression of a speech. In addition to speech, the 1st Amendment protects writing, demonstrating, parading, leafleting, and certain forms of symbolic expression. The freedom of speech becomes a progeny to terra firmaable time, manner, and place regulations, as long as these regulations are content-neutral. Translating this legalistic jargon in plain English, the bureaucrats cannot restrict the content of what the speaker has to say, but it is their prerogative to reason what reasonable time, manner, and place are. And we know how they usually define what reasonable is (for them, of course). Brandenburg vs. Ohio In Brandenbu... ...otential attackers across a wider geographic area. Such a flat-out conclusion -- about one hundred eighty degrees from the trumpeted rationale for spending billions in Afghanistan -- might seem to merit more than a few dozen wo rds. The assessment, while prominent, was brief and fleeting. It seemed to cause little elicit in American news media. So, actually, First Amendment is not really a guarantee. Its a promissory ideal that can be redeemed only by media vitality in the present. If freedom of speech can be augmented by freedom to be heard, then Americans may hear enough divergent voices to disabuse themselves of easy and deadly clichs. References 1) Norman Solomons book The Habits of Highly Deceptive Media 2) Schenck Case retrieved from http//www.thisnation.com/library on 23/04/2003 3) Cases Incorporated Schenck v. U.S., Brandenburg Vs. Ohio and U.S. v. OBrien.

Essay --

First Amendment Rights During War Considering that the 1st Amendment of the Constitution guarantees freedom of pitch, can and should government regulate hate speech, or desire to address the harm it makes? Based on a premise that there is no such a thing as absolute right or absolute freedom, we can infer that a government can and should regulate any speech and seek to address the harm it causes barely the real retire is -- where, when, and how can it be regulated? Trying to balance both, freedom of speech and the fear of an inflammatory press report, the Supreme Court has produced probably the most storied legalistic test -- clear and present danger. The underlying idea is that bureaucrats cannot punish a speaker/writer unless he/she creates a clear and present danger to others. Theoretically, this stock appears to be supportive of the right to speak freely. However, in practice, it is difficult to determine when the danger was clear enough for an average reporter, how remote it could be and yet even so be considered present, and how precisely hazardous the danger should be to justify suppression of a speech. In addition to speech, the 1st Amendment protects writing, demonstrating, parading, leafleting, and certain forms of symbolic expression. The freedom of speech becomes a subject to reasonable time, manner, and place regulations, as long as these regulations are content-neutral. Translating this legalistic jargon in plain English, the bureaucrats cannot restrict the content of what the speaker has to say, but it is their prerogative to reason what reasonable time, manner, and place are. And we know how they usually define what reasonable is (for them, of course). Brandenburg vs. Ohio In Brandenbu... ...otential attackers across a wider geographic area. Such a flat-out termination -- about 180 degrees from the trumpeted rationale for spending billions in Afghanistan -- might seem to merit more than a few dozen words. The assessment, wh ile prominent, was brief and fleeting. It seemed to cause little stir in American news media. So, actually, First Amendment is not really a guarantee. Its a promissory ideal that can be redeem only by media vitality in the present. If freedom of speech can be augmented by freedom to be identifyd, then Americans may hear enough divergent voices to disabuse themselves of easy and deadly clichs. References 1) Norman Solomons book The Habits of Highly Deceptive Media 2) Schenck Case retrieved from http//www.thisnation.com/library on 23/04/2003 3) Cases integrate Schenck v. U.S., Brandenburg Vs. Ohio and U.S. v. OBrien.

Ethics in public ad Essay

Since the 1970s there has been a great deal of change associated with the instruction execution of administrative ethics. These changes have been promoted and motivated by the concept of public governing in the new era. An important position is given to the concept of ethical issues in todays civil governance. There has been a great deal of research associated with this concept which has been supported by translation of evidences and theories into practice across variant continents. Frederickson and Ghere (2005) address both the managerial and individual/moral dimensions of ethical behavior as well as new challenges to administrative ethics posed by globalization. As promoted by Cooper (2001) ethics in public administration is not a transient concept but has proven to be an turn up which has shown a great deal of sustainability which is fundamental to the area of public administration. Public administration has certain issues with regard to ethics implementation and finds it trou blesome to come to footing with them.One reason for this is because ethics is embedded in an intellectual framework. This framework is based on stable institutional as well as subroutine relationship levels, among both public employees as well as the organization. According to the views of a number of researchers (Bang and Sorensen, 1999 Keast et al., 2004 Rhodes, 1996 Sorensen, 2002, 2006 Sorensen and Torfing, 2004 Stoker, 1998), current government perspectives believe that clarity and stability at these levels would be problematic. Despite the increasing number of studies that have focused on the importance of administrative ethics, there has been very little effort spent on identifying what is exactly the crux of ethics in administration (Cooper, 2004).This lack of directed research in the dynamics of operations with regards to ethics in public administration along with constant changes in the principles and policies associated with administrative ethics need to be examined. Th ese developments have raised new topics for concern in this field. One example which hindquarters be cited at this juncture is the emergence of the concept of egovernance which would require the identification of a whole new paradigm of ethics in public administration.

Mortality Regimes And Longevity Risk Health And Social Care Essay

This base explores the presence of authoritiess in death direct ki force outicss and assesses their deductions for distance of service jeopardy direction. Our approach shot extends the Poisson log bilinear arrested development demonstrable by Brouhn et Al. by capturing the time- variable death rate constituent with a Markov regime-switching notional tarradiddle. The abstractive account is so employ to Gallic death rate informations sets from 1947 to 2007. Our analysis reveals that one g all overnment is characterized by high volatility and is active during the 20 old bestrides after the Second World War. The second regime corresponds to a province of pitiable volatility and tempts duration of service bet boundents observed during the recent period. A four-card monte Carlo feigning is so used to look into the impact of deathrate organizations for the hazard direction of deportment rente portfolios. cloak reveals that the sign scattering of a mortality presid ency affects well the solvency degree of portfolio and the capital demands, corroborating the importance of taking into history mortality regimes for the direction of aliveness story rente portfolios.Keywords Life rente, mortality rate Projection, Regime-switching determinesJEL Classification C32, G22, G231. IntroductionLife outlook everyplace has increased well over the endure century. In France, mortality has declined steeply, as older people live longer. Life prognostication at birth for priapics has passed from 45 old ages in 1900 to 81 old ages in 2000. This phenomenon is seen as hefty intelligence for persons and as a significant societal accomplishment. However, it poses new challenges for the policy shapers, private pension film directors and other suppliers of life rentes, where the consequence of life anticipation betterments on the solvency of pension systems is a concern ( Macdonald et al. , 1998 ) .As underlined by Marocco and Pitacco ( 1998 ) , length of se rvice hazard, that is, the uncertainness sing the future development of mortality and life anticipation results, affects the price and reserving of life rente merchandises well. Indeed, establishments supplying life rentes run the hazard that the existent pry of projects exceeds their outlooks, taking to state of affairss of bankruptcy, when establishments can non fee the promised meat to endorsers. The count of evaluate present prys therefore requires an appropriate mortality projection that avoids underestimating future duties.In 1992, Lee and Carter proposed a simple theoretic account that specifies mortality appraise alteration as a map of a exclusive decorate index. The method describes the mortality rate as the amount of an age-specific constituent independent of clip and a bilinear term that is the merchandise of a time-varying parametric quantity vector stand foring the development of mortality over clip and an age-specific vector of parametric quantities reflecti ng how each age is impacted by the development of mortality. The estimation of the time-varying parametric quantity is so modeled and betoken as a random time-series utilizing the Box-Jenkins method. The forecast mortality rate is so obtained by uniting the prognosis time-varying mortality constituent obtained by an ARIMA notional account, with the estimated parametric quantities relative to age effects.However, the usage of an ARIMA a priori account to depict the behaviour of mortality over clip appears unrealistic. As Sweeting ( 2010 ) underscores, mortality nowadayss explosive alterations in tendencies, proposing the presence of a non-linear construction. Further much, the mortality procedure exhibits non-Gaussian belongingss such as fatten out dress suits, heteroscedasticity, and lopsidedness. In visible radiation of these facts, we propose to capture the time-varying mortality constituent obtained by a Poisson log bilinear theoretical account assessment, with a Markov e xchanging theoretical account.Markov exchanging theoretical accounts were introduced by Goldfeld and Quandt ( 1973 ) and became popular after the seminal paper of Hamilton ( 1989 ) . In finance and economic sciences, regime-switching theoretical accounts have have turning attending. They be capable of capturing complex non-linear ki give the sackicss, including sudden alterations in the behaviour of clip series, and complicated signifiers of heteroscedasticity, fat dress suits, and skews. They argon notably used to capture the kineticss of GDP ( Hamilton, 1989 ) , plus monetary values ( Longin and Solnik, 2001 ) or familiarity rates that exhibit non-Gaussian belongingss ( Ang and Bekaert, 1998 ) . Ang and Timmermann ( 2011 ) supply a good study of the assorted applications of Markov exchanging theoretical accounts in economic sciences and finance. In actuarial scientific disciplines, administration skunk has been largely focused on the pricing of fiscal merchandises ( Hardy, 2001 Bollen, 1998 ) . To our cognition, merely Milidonis et Al. ( 2011 ) have explored the usage of Markov regime-switching theoretical accounts to capture mortality kineticss. They apply this type of theoretical account to US informations from 1921 to 2005 and demo that mortality is characterized by a ii-regime shift theoretical account. However, their work brushs an overt unfavorable judgment the designation of mortality political relations could be merely due to the presence of the two universe wars in their sample.In this paper, we explore the inquiry whether mortality governments are discernable in Gallic informations from 1947 to 2007. Using an information standard attack, we visualize that Gallic mortality is characterized by two distinguishable governments. One government refers to a strong uncertainness province, matching to length of service conditions observed during the decennary following the Second World War. The 2nd province is related to the low volatility of le ngth of service betterments observed during the last 30 old ages.The cardinal invention of our paper is the probe of the influence of mortality governments on length of service hazard. Using Monte Carlo pretext, we derive a qualified distribution of prospective life tabular arraies, which are so used in come out to mensurate the influence of mortality governments on life rente portfolio hazard. It appears that the active distribution of a mortality government affects well the projection of mortality, but at any rate the uncertainness that comes from this projection. That connexion is peculiarly of import for statisticians, who mustiness find the sum of money unavoidable to pay pensions, every bit good as the safety lading used to cover the uncertainness relation to the betterment in life anticipation.The paper is organized as follow. Section 2 nowadayss notations, premises, and informations. Section 3 provides a elaborate presentation of the methodological analysis associatin g to mortality projection theoretical accounts. Section 4 presents the appraisal consequences. In subdivision 5, a cash- light simulation of a portfolio of life rentes measures the chief deductions of a mortality government on length of service hazard and capital demands. Section 6 concludes the paper.2. Notations, Assumptions, and Datas2.1. NotationMortality is studied in two dimensions age, and calendar clip. We shall utilize so following notationrepresents the staying life-time of an undivided senior on January 1 of twelvemonth.is the chance that an single elderly in twelvemonth dies before making age.is the chance that an single aged survives during the twelvemonth and reaches age note.is the cardinal mortality rate at age during the clip.is the image to hazard at age during twelvemonth. It represents the entire clip lived by people aged during the twelvemonth.represents the gauge of deceases at age during the clip, from an photograph to hazard.represents the figure of per sons aged in life during the twelvemonth.is the expected staying life-time of single aged in the clip.is the monetary value of the net present value of a life rente sold to an single elderly in twelvemonth.2.2. PremisesThe cardinal mortality rate is supposed changeless within two sets to and to. For any given whole number and a day of the month, we so obtain( 1 )The premise of a changeless mortality cardinal rate implies that for an single elderly in twelvemonth that( 2 )Finally, two measures of involvement mostly used by demographists and statisticians are introduced. Life anticipation is a Greco-Roman step sum uping the development of the mortality over the clip( 3 )The computation is base on the survival chances from age to the ultimate age aa The maximal age considered depends on the pick of life put back closings. 1 As the endurance chances are non available after clip, they must be extrapolated from a projection theoretical account. The life rente refers to the net presen t value of future compensations sold to an single elderly in twelvemonth( 4 )where is the price reduction factor that we suppose changeless over clip. 2 3.2. DatasFor this survey, male and female Gallic mortality informations have been taken from the Human Mortality database. 3 The informations consist of the cardinal mortality rate, the exposure to hazard, and the figure of deceases between two ages. It was desirable to utilize merely informations from 1947 through 2007. The period before 1947 has been ignored to avoid the mortality dazes associated with the first and 2nd universe wars. We consider merely the age scope between 60 and 98 old ages. Age classes younger than 60 twelvemonth are ignored, since the aims of this survey focal point on length of service hazard jobs. The information, at older age ( over 98 old ages ) have besides been excluded due to the little figure of subsisters. Mortality at older ages will be however generated from a log quadratic polynomial map ( insid e informations will be given in subdivision 3.5 ) . configurations 1-a and 1-b head the development of Gallic mortality during this period. A net decrease in mortality is observed for both work forces and adult females, in peculiar at advanced ages. Figure 1 slightly here. 3. Methodology3.1. A Poisson log bilinear theoretical accountFollowing the attack introduces by Brouhns et Al. ( 2002b ) , the figure of deceases is captured by a Poisson distribution( 1 )where is the force of mortality, designed as a log bilinear construction. The parametric quantities have the same reading as in the traditional Lee Carter theoretical account. The measures, and are specific age parametric quantities, is a time-varying parametric quantity stand foring the development of mortality over the clip. Again, is the exposure to hazard. 4 . The merchandise of and is the strength parametric quantity of the Poisson distribution ( ) . ItHe represents the expected figure of deceases during the twelvemonth. Finally, as in the Lee-Carter theoretical account, we impose restraints on parametric quantities and to stop up theoretical account designation( 2 )One advantage of the Poisson log bilinear theoretical account over the Lee Carter theoretical account is that appraisal is realized by maximising the likeliness, alternatively of a remarkable value decomposition ( SVD ) . Consequently, there is no demand to hold a complete angular matrix of informations to gauge parametric quantities. Further more than, a Poisson log bilinear gives straight the figure of deceases whereasile the Lee Carter theoretical account gives merely an appraisal of decease rates.3.2. Model appraisalThe log bilinear Poisson theoretical account is estimated by maximising the log-likelihood( 3 )The presence of the bilinear term does non let one to using classical Poisson arrested development. To avoid this job, the appraisal is resolved by the simple Newton method, ( Goodman, ( 1979 ) . The rule consists into updati nge the individual set of parametric quantities whilein repairing the other parametric quantity at their watercourse values( 4 )The lLog bilinear Poisson theoretical account comprisesaccounts three different sets of parametric quantities, the, the, and the vector vector. The updating algorithm is organized as follow ( 5 )( 6 )( 7 )wWhere is the expected figure of deceases occuroccurringed each twelvemonth. ? propose to signise the algorithm with get downing values, , and. At the terminal of the updating measure, the theoretical account designation is non ensured. To esteem the restraint suggested by Lee and Carter ( 1992 ) , the theoretical account must be reparametrized as follows( 8 )( 9 )( 10 )wWhereith and is the mean of footings. setback to the Lee Carter attack, there is no demand to readapt the procedure the kappa as own map of the figure of deceases.3.3. Modeling the time- factor under a Markov shift theoretical accountAs underlined by Sweeting ( 2010 ) emphasizes in de fence of the pick of government exchanging theoretical accounts to capture dynamic mortality, the mortality procedure exhibits a sudden interruption during the last century, supporting the pick of government exchanging theoretical accounts to capture dynamic mortality. Following this determination, we model the procedure with a regime-switching theoretical account.The procedure exhibits a non- stationarity. The application of a first- difference filter removes the tendency constituent from the series and gives a stationary procedure toon which we can use our theoretical account. Let be the clip series, obtained from the first differenced. We suppose that is modeled as a regime- shift procedure( 11 )( 12 )andWhere and are, severally, the intercept and the autoregressive coefficients proportional to each province. The term represents the vector of conditional remainders. The term is the conditionnal residuary term, usually distributed with a average equal to zero and a regime-depende nt criterion divergence.The theoretical account described here is real normal and allows intercepts, autoregressive footings, and covariances to change across provinces.When presuming one government is assumed, the theoretical account receives a simple AR ( cubic decimeter ) theoretical account.Governments passages are governed by a procedure that satisfies the undermentioned Markov concatenation belongingss( 13 )Hence, each government is the realisation of a first- order Markov concatenation with changeless passage chances. The province kineticss are unseen and must be inferred straight from the discernible variable.The passage chances are represented in the passage matrix( 14 )Each component of the matrix P must fulfill the undermentioned conditions( 15 )The choice of figure of governments is a current job infrom regime- exchanging theoretical account researchs. To find the figure of governments, we pick out the information standard for theoretical account choice. This method offers good consequences and is easy to transport out ( Psaradakis and Spagnolo, ( 2006 ) . Refering the pick of information standard, we preferprefer to used the MSC standard that has beenwas developed specifically for regime- shift theoretical accounts, ( Smith et al. , ( 2006 ) . However, the AIC standard is besides reported.To gauge the theoretical account, we use an iterative numerical process based on the evaluate Maximization ( ) algorithm developed by Dempster et Al. ( 1977 ) . The process is an optimisation technique designed for theoretical accounts where the ascertained clip series depends on an unobservable stochastic variable, such as in Markov exchanging theoretical accounts. The get downing values required to signise the algorithm are obtained by using the K-means method ( MacQueen et al. , ( 1967 ) .3.4. prospective life tabular arraies and authority intervalsIn prediction, an indispensable inquiry concerns the degree of uncertainness degree relation to the foreca sted measures, such as mortality rate or life anticipations. A good cognition of the distribution and assurance intervals of forecasted measures aAlso, he appears indispensable to hold a good cognition of distribution or assurance intervals of forecasted measures. Unfortunately, in theour instance we are analyzing, we can non deduce an analytical look for the distribution or assurance intervals. This is due to facts that, the building of prospective life tabular arraies needfully involvesrequires uniting two kinds oftype mistakes. The first mistake arises from the appraisal of, , and. The 2nd mistake comes from the projection of, because of the parametric quantities of regime-s shift theoretical accounts are themselves random variables. Furthermore, the involvement measures of involvement, such as life anticipation, are non- additive complex maps of Poisson parametric quantities and regime- shift parametric quantities , this poses an extra complication.To get the better of these jo bs, a Monte Carlo simulation process is used to come close the distribution of involvement pertinent measures such as mortality rate, life anticipation, and life rente. The simulation is organized as follows.First, we generate MM samples of, , and, where m is the index relation to the m-th simulations. Let be the m-thmth fake parametric quantity sets composed of, , and. Under regularity premises, asymptotic belongingss of maximal likeliness calculators ( MLE ) warrants that is generated followerss a multivariate normal distribution ( MND ) with average vector, , , and covariance matrix given by the opposite of the Fisher information mMatrix. From the fake series, we estimate MM government exchanging theoretical accounts and obtain MM parametric quantity sets denoted. Each set is composed of, , , , and elements of the associated passage chances matrix associated.The parametric quantity sets are so used to bring onward MM projections of, denoted. Note that under regime- shift scenes , the predicted values do notnaaa?t depend merely on estimated parametric quantity sets as in the instance of additive theoretical accounts. They are besides affected by the initial distribution of governments, denoted by the vector of chances selected as exogenic. 5 . In a two- government theoretical account without autoregressive footings, the fake values are given by( 16 )wWhere is a Markov concatenation generated from the initial province vector and chances passage matrix. The map is an index map equal to 1 if the procedure province is in the government. The projection is so derived from.The fake parametric quantity sets, , , and are eventually combined to build MM prospective life tabular arraies, denoted( 17 )wWhere m is the index relation to the mt-th simulations, the initial distribution of mortality governments, and the day of the month from which the values are communicate.3.5. Polynomial smoothing of older ages and shutting of life tabular set up closingsThe computation of the mortality rate in old ageat older ages, poses significant jobs to demographists and statisticians. Indeed, mortality informations for older agesat older ages are frequently characterized by the presence of outlier informations. Wilmoth ( 1995 ) identifies two chief grounds. First, good-looking random fluctuations are comparative to the little figure of single who survive to older age. Second, that is due to inaccuracies exist in the coverage of age in nose count. These inaccuracies causeprovide to cumulative tortuousness of heaping on ages by a multiple of five or ten. A natural solution to get the better of at this job is to smooth the mortality informations get downing from a specific age, for illustration, 80 old ages. Wilmoth ( 1993 ) established that the curvature of the log mortality rate has a concave signifier inat older age. From On the footing of these determinations, Denuit and Goderniaux ( 2005 ) proposed seting the log mortality by least squaresss square wit h a log-quadratic map( 1 )Capable to the Under contraintsconstraints( 2 )wWhere corresponds to the first derived puzzle out of. The restraints and correspond to conditions of the shutting of the life tabular array. The first restraint fixes the upper bound of lifetime, while the 2nd assumessupposes that the incline of the log mortality curve become zeronull at maximal age. CIn uniting these equations, we obtain( 3 )To find the age from which it is necessary to get downing log quadratic parameterization, we refer to ? in which it is the finding ofchoose to find so as to in maximising the coefficient of finding. In Our instance, = . A simple geometric mean is used to smooth the mortality rate nearly to this age.4. An application to Gallic population mortality4.1. Appraisal of Poisson log bilinear theoretical accountThe log bilinear Poisson theoretical account, presented in subdivision 3.1, is applied to French data sets. Figure 3 plots the value of, , and obtained from the apprais al.As in the classical Lee Carter theoretical account, may be interpreted as the norm of. The curve is monotonically increasing, relatinged to high mortality with age. As expected, adult females present values that are ever lower than those of work forces, reflecting a highersuperior life anticipation.Figure 2-b exhibits the form. The curve increases somewhat until age 75 old ages, and so diminutions. The values remain positive, bespeaking a decrease of mortality for all ages.The term is plotted ion figure 2-c. This term reflects the lessening of mortality over the clip. 6 . As expected, it exhibits a regular bettering tendency, slightlygently more of import for adult females than work forces. After 2007, the calculationus of mortality rates requires intimacy ofto know the future values of. For this, we projectate future values from the regime- shift theoretical account as described in subdivision 3.3. Since the augmented Dickey instinct(predicate) trial, reported in table 1, con firmsAs that the series is non-stationary ( The augmentedDickey Fuller trial are reported in table 1 confirms it ) , , the appraisal and projection are based on the differenced series, viz. ) , whichthat is stationary. The tabular array besides reports the descriptive statistics of. He appearsIt emerges that exhibits an surplus of lopsidedness and kurtosis, in peculiar in the instance of notably by adult females. A Jarque-Bera trials is besides reported to analyze whethertest if follows a Gaussian distribution. It is clearHe appears clear that the behaviour is non-t Gaussian for both work forces and adult females. This confirms the, corroborating the involvement ofto patterning the time- varying constituent with a regime- shift theoretical account. Table 1 about here. Figure 2 about here. 4.2. Forecasting the mortality with government exchangingThe kineticss of areis captured with a regime- shift theoretical account. To choose goods characteristics of the theoretical account, an i nformation standard attack has been adopted. A big scope of specifications washas been tested byin augmenting bit by bit the figure of governments of governments and the figure of slowdown of slowdowns. The table 2 nowadayss merely the consequences for the instance and. 7 . regime- exchanging theoretical account with regime-dependent impetus and regime-dependent criterion divergence theoretical account performs better than a single- government theoretical account for both work forces and adult females.the MSIH ( 2 ) theoretical account and geometric B coursenian gesture ( GBM ) are reported ion tabular array 2.The two identified governments in government the shift theoretical accounts are easy explainable. The first government corresponds to a high uncertainness province of mortality development, while the 2nd is characterized by a low volatility of mortality. Indeed, the standard divergence is higher in the government 1 ( 3.64 for work forces and 6.25 for adult females ) than in t he government 2 ( 0.43 for work forces and 0.85 for adult females ) . CThe canvass with the additive theoretical account reveals that the uncertainyuncertainty may be twice every bit high compared comparative to classical ARIMA appraisal.Our consequences uncover differences harmonizing to sexthe sexe. As expected, the drift term is more higher for adult females than for work forces, reflecting the current difference of life anticipation observed in mortality informations. However, the consequences besides indicate that the mortality development is more unsure 40 by adult females than forby work forces. Finally, the fact that the impetuss are non statistically significantly different from nothing in government 1, suggests that government 1 corresponds instead to a government of decelerating down inof anticipation life betterment. Table 3 about here. s after 1965. A similar information mutant is observed for adult females, excepted that the switch appears more Oklahomans, from 1960. Finally, a new switch of governments is captured in 2003 both for both work forces and adult females. This is explained by the heat wave that swept acrossof heat occurred in Europe, during the summer of 2003, which increased has caused an overmortality amongst frailer older peopleby older people the more frail.At the terminal of table 2, we report the ergodic chances and continuance steps relative to each mortality government. For work forces, we find that the chances to be in a government 1 or in a government 2 are comparatively closed. In footings of continuance, the governments are extremely relentless. For work forces and adult females, the government lastsgoes on around 20 old ages. The mortality regimes seem so sufficiently, adequate persistent to impact durably the life anticipation of insurance companies, and the degree of liabilities, which insurers consider. Figure 3 about here. 4.3. A distribution of pProspective life tabular arraiesAs explained in the subdivision 3.4, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to bring forth 5000 samples of the original parametric quantities the simulation are non reported here for deficiency of infinite, but are available on demand. The assurance intervals derived from the sSimulations, give us a good position of the uncertainness relation to the log bilinear Poisson appraisal. From the fake parametric quantities for the regime- shift parametric quantities theoretical account is so obtained.s. The quantile s the general degree of uncertainness relation to mortality projection. Table 4 about here. tabular arraies are so derived from the fake parametric quantities (wWhere shift scenes, the prediction of mortality rates depends on the distribution of the mortality government at the day of the month of projection, namelyFor the interest of simplificationTo interest of simplify, we assume that the active government in s to has two affirmable instances, viz. pertinent measures will be computed as maps of both distributions.A l ast measure is required to finalise the life tabular arraies. As explained in the subdivision 3.4, we apply aA log- quadratic map to smooth mortality at older ages and shut the tabular arraies as discussed in ? quadratic theoretical account is fixed at 80 old ages. Figure 4 gives an illustration of smoothed and closed life tabular arraies, including projections out tountil 2050 and presuming an initial distributiontabular arraies, we derive two other involvement measures of involvement, viz. the distribution of life anticipation, and the distribution of a life rente ( i.e. , a net individual premium life rente ) . The life anticipation and the net individual premium are investigated utilizing the longitudinal ( cohort ) attack ( cohort attack ) . This method differs from the transversal attack in the sense thatwhere the development of mortality is non investigated merely in footings of calendar times, but besides takes into history the twelvemonth of individualsaaa? birthdays. Un der the longitudinal attack, life anticipation and the life rente are given by twelvemonth endurance probabilities the mortality rateIn the computation of the life rente, we assume that the price reduction factor the short rate observed over the sample period ( 1947-2007 ) , equal to 4 % . It appears that the mortality government affects well the distribution of life anticipation and life rente well. Harmonizing to the active government at the projection day of the month, the distributions function exhibits different forms, bespeaking that the mortality government affects the jutting values, but besides the uncertainness relation to projections. If we consider the instance where the government 1 is active at the projection day of the month, the life anticipation distribution nowadayss fat dress suits compared to the Gaussian instance, bespeaking that the classical projection theoretical account ( ARIMA theoretical account ) may underestimatea possible underestimate of life anticipat ion betterments by the classical projection theoretical account ( ARIMA theoretical account ) .That fact is peculiarly of import for statisticians, whothat decide theto sums of money required to fund the payment of the pensions, or the safety border required to hedgethe coverage of the uncertainness relatingve to the betterment inof life anticipation. Harmonizing to the new European solvency system ( Solvency II ) , the solvency capital demand ( SCR ) must vouch that Thea give away chance of rail at is below toless than iesy supplying life rentes run the hazard that the choosen safety core is non plenty to vouch the payment of pensions., and endorsers. First, how do mortality governments affect the hazard of life rente portfolios? Second, what is the economic cost of ignore governments? To reply to theseis two inquiries, we follow ? a life rente portfolio of life rentes under different mortality regime- exchanging scenes.5.1. MethodologySee a portfolio composed of of age 65 ol d ages, supplying a unit capital at the terminal of each twelvemonth. At the theme of the distribution stage, in 2007, the company which manages the life rentes portfolio defines a measure of money ( i.e. , net individual premiums ) , matching to the value nowadays of the expected cost of paying a decease benefit. Each twelvemonth, one unit of money is distributed to each populating single. The portion of non- distributed militias is reinvested, bring forthing a clearthe last single.Let rReserve available at the get downing day of the month. the portfolio. The figure of deceases a Ppoisson distribution withof strength parametric quantitythe one- twelvemonth subsister chances froms during 2007 is so simulated from the Poisson distribution utilizingthe old subdivision, the figure of deceases depends straight on the initial active government. So, sSimulations are conducted for each initial mortality province. The figure of subsisters at the beginning of following twelvemonth is given by, the initial modesty of rentes, the rReserve is so equal tovanishes wholly vanished, for the last single. We besides assume that the rate of return on the modesty the price reduction rate ( 4 % ) .At the beginning of the distribution stage, we assume that the company gets an sum, the net individual premiums ) , which is used to pay the pensions until the decease of the last single. We investigate five three calculating methods for calculating of this sum Pure premium under cross position. We consider the instance where the net individual premium is merely computed from mortality informations from 2007 ( without any mortality projection ) .Regime-dependent pure premium under longitudinal position. The mortality rates are projected utilizing a Markov exchanging theoretical account, and used to monetary value life annuitiesy as described in subdivision 3.4. Note that under the Markov shift model, the net individual premium is a regime-dependent measure, which differs harmonizing to the initial active government.Regime-dependent pure premium + safety border under longitudinal position. Finally, we investigated the instance where a safety border is added to the conditional expected premium computed from longitudinal attack. The net individual premiums are defined, by bear downing the 90 % , 95 % , and 99.5 % percentile of life rente denseness, as described in old subdivision.For each value of net individual premiums, we compute five hazard indexs, mensurating how mortality projection affects the life rentes portfolio, viz. tThe pProbability of ruin which is, i.e. , the chance that the net individual premium defined in 2007 does notnaaa?t suffice to pay all the promised payments. The chance is computed byin sing a rate of return on the modesty equal to the price reduction rate.tThe clip until ruin, i.e. , means the mean figure of twelvemonth elapsed before ruin, given that the ruin occurs.tThe average spillage, i.e. , corresponds to the norm of the shortages re gistered for the twelvemonth whenre the ruin occurs.tThe average figure of staying cContracts, i.e. , contracts staying in the twelvemonth whenre the ruin occurs.tThe fudging involvement rate, i.e. , which is the involvement rate on the modesty required to guarantee a entire hedge of length of service hazard ( in other wordsi.e. , a chance of ruin thatwhich is niull ) .5.2. Consequences of Cash flow SimulationTables 5 and 6 resume the chief consequences of the simulations. Hazard steps are computed for each value of a net individual premium. Tables 5-a and 6-a show the simulation consequences when the initial province is the government 1, while tabular arraies 5-b and 6-b refer to the state of affairs where the government 2 is active.Note fFirst that, sSimulations highlights the importance of mortality projections. The net individual premiums computed on the footing of the transversal method leads to the bankruptcy in about of 80 % of fake instances. We find that about one 3rd of c ontracts are non fulfilledsatisfied and the average way out at the minute of ruin corresponds to more thanof 20 % of the nominal sum. Table 5 about here. a logical decrease oflogically diminishing the chance of ruin. However, ithe appears to be necessary to include a safety burden, since bear downing the pure premiums on the footing of the longitudinal method consequences into the negative hard currency flow in 50 % of fake instances. The last row of each tabular array considers the instance where the Ssolvency Ccapital Rrequirement is applied, ( that is, intending that the safety lading allow to coverensures coverage of 99.5 % of the fake scenarios ) . As expected, the chance of ruin, the average loss, mean and the figure of unfulfilledsatisfying contracts so decreases so substantiallysignificantly.An indispensable determination of our research concerns the fact that the mortality province active at the beginning of the distribution stage affects well the hazard of life rente port folios well. For a similar degree of hazard ( i.e. , ruin chance of ruin ) , we note big differences in the pure premium harmonizing to which ofwhen the government 1 or regime 2 is active or when the government 2 is active. The safety burden, which is the extra sum of modesty required to restrict the ruin chance, is besides affected. If we consider the degree of ruin defined harmonizing to Ssolvency II2, ithe appears that the safety burden is twice as higher when the government 1 is active, reflecting the strong uncertainness comparative toin mortality development inrelative to this province. It is besides interesting to observe that mortality governments affects the day of the month of bankruptcy, the degree of average loss or the figure of unfulfilledsatisfying contracts. All these steps are deteriorated when the government 1 is active at the beginning of the distribution stage. Table 6 about here. Simulations performed on the female informations confirm these consequences. It app ears clearly that the initial province affects the hazard of the portfolio. However, the consequences highlight differences harmonizing to the gender of endorsers. The day of the month of bankruptcy occurs subsequently on norm more recently for adult females than for work forces, while the average loss is higher for adult females than for work forces. Similarly, the figure of staying contracts at the bankruptcy day of the month is higher for adult females than for work forces.So far, we established that the existencepresence of government shift in the distribution of mortality could impact the hazard of life rente portfolios well. This grounds does non connote, nevertheless, that companiesy thatwhich manages the life rente portfolios are is needfully better off if they accountby accounting for governments in the mortality distribution. So, we assess hence the economic cost of governments. We undertake this analysisdo it by comparing the hazard step under the regime- shift theoretica l account of mortality to the riskat presuming the pension director is constrainedt to take a net individual premium under the premise that mortality development follows a simple geometric Brownian gesture.Table 6 presents the brinies consequences. Columns 1 and 3 study the chance of ruin when the pension director is constrainedt to disregard governments. We find that disregarding governments increases well the hazard of bankruptcy for a starting government of high volatility ( province 1 ) . That suggests a possible underestimate of length of service hazard by the classical projection theoretical account. 8 . For the instance where the pension director triesy to esteem the Ssolvency Ccapital Rrequirement ( last row of each tabular array ) , disregarding high volatility governments is tantamount to doublinge the chance of ruin for male endorsers ( from 0.5 % to 1.1 % ) , and to multiplying it by 5 for female endorsers ( from 0.5 % to 2.4 % ) .A 2nd manner to quantify the effects rel ative to disregarding the governments is to calculate the fluctuation of safety burden, fulfilling the ruin chance mark. In other word, what is the sum of safety burden that a pension director constrained tot disregarding governments must add in order for that the ruin chance of his portfolio to match to the true mark. The per centums are reported in the columns 2 and 4 of table 6. For statisticians and pension directors, an highly relevantinteresting value for the safety burden is that necessaryrelative to esteem the mark defined by solvency 2Solvency II. We find that disregarding a high volatility government is tantamount to underestimatinge the safety lading byfrom 13 % for work forces and byfrom 27 % for adult females, compared to the degrees predicted by the classical ARIMA theoretical account. These consequences confirms therefore the importance of taking accounting mortality regimes into history for the direction of theportfolios of life rentes life rente portfolio. Table 7 a bout here. 62. DecisionThis paper explores the presence being of governments in mortality kineticss and measures the deductions for a portfolios of life annuitiesy. This is achievedWe do it by capturing the kineticss of time- changing mortality constituents obtained by a Poisson log bilinear theoretical account appraisal with a Markov exchanging theoretical account. The pick of a Markov exchanging theoretical account is motivated by the fact that time- changing constituents exhibits sudden alterations of tendencies and exhibitpresents lopsidedness and fat dress suits, bespeaking a non- Gaussian distribution. The theoretical account is applied to the Gallic mortality informations from 1947 to 2007. The appraisals reveal the existencepresence of two governments in mortality kineticss. The first government is characterized by a highstrong volatility, and is operativeactive during the 20 old ages after the Ssecond Wworld War t. The 2nd identified government corresponds to a province of low volatility, and captures the recent development of mortality.Using Monte Carlo simulation, we derive a conditional distribution of prospective life tabular arraies, and utilize them in order to look into the influence of mortality governments on the hazard of life rente portfolios. Simulations show that mortality governments affect well the monetary value of life rente merchandises and the safety burden required to cover the uncertainness relation to betterments in life anticipation life betterment. The fact of ignoringIgnorance of these governments result Immigration and Naturalization Services to underestimate of e the true hazard of bankruptcy. Harmonizing to our computationsing, disregarding a high volatility mortality government is tantamount to bearinghave a chance of ruin toof 1.1 % for work forces and to 2.5 % for adult females. However, Solvency II while solvency 2 regulations recommend that this chance ishould be smaller than 0.5 % .Our consequences argue in favour o f mortality projections under government exchanging instead under ARIMA theoretical accounts. Indeed, mortality governments affect clearly the rating of liabilities, and disregarding governments consequences in to underestimation ofe the length of service hazard or mortality hazard. Sing In position of the prudential attack required by the rating of liabilities, the incorporation ofhe appears necessary of accounting mortality governments in thefor direction of the life rente portfolios appears necessary, and it seems sensible to recommend that the least favourable government should be used toeventually to monetary value the life annuitiesy or decease insurance merchandises utilizing the government the most unfavourable.

Alumni Portal

ABSTRACT This job entails developing a network based application for Dau Alumni entre for two of the faculties that is Faculty of Information Technology and the C atomic number 18ers Department which both are facing a problem on how to keep in touch with their receive student. As for solving this problem, portal for alumni need to build as the objective is to create a system of a middle person entity, allowing alumni members and non-members to snuff it in virtually.This portal is Internet web-based systems that consist of syner fareic web page which is accessible exchanging information mingled with user anywhere around the globe and web throttle with expose any duration constraint. In addition, patchagement is getting updated alumni record and resources by administrators could besides be done via profit. This portal integrates several(prenominal) software packages and programming languages open for the development litigate. It is hope this portal would greatly get to a ll muckle who involve with it. Table of Contents 1.Chapter I. 4 1. 0 Introduction4 1. 1 Background Information4 1. 2 Problem Statement.. 4 1. 3 Rationale (Justification)5 1. 4 Proposed system5 1. 5 System Objectives6 1. 6 Scope of the System6 1. 7 Limitations6 1. 8 Beneficiaries6 1. Theoretical Frame mould7 2. Chapter 2 belles-lettres Review8 2. 1 Introduction8 2. 2 spherical Literature Review8 2. 3 Regional Literature Review8 2. 4 Local Literature Review8 2. 5 Summary9 3. Chapter 3 Research Methods10 3. 1 Introduction10 3. 2 Locality of the Project10 . 3 Population10 3. 4 Research Techniques10 3. 4. 1 Sampling Method10 3. 4. 2 Interviews11 3. 4. 3 Literature Study.. 11 3. 4. 4 Observation11 3. 5 The Platform. 11 3. 5. 1 MySQL11 3. 5. 2 PHP.. 11 3. 5. 3 hypertext mark-up language. 12 3. 5. CASE Tools12 4. Chapter 4 System Analysis13 4. 1 Introduction13 4. 1. 1 Technical Feasibility13 4. 1. 2 Economic Feasibility13 4. 1. 3 Operational Feasibility.. 13 4. 1. 4 Schedule Feasibility . 14 4. 2 Implementation excogitation14 5. Chapter 5 System Design15 5. 1 Use Case Diagram15 . 2 Flow Chart19 5. 3 Data Flow Diagrams.. 21 6. Chapter 6 Coding and Testing.. 23 i) lieupage23 ii) Registering of Alumni. 25 iii) Login29 iv) Forum Page30 Conclusion31 References32 ? CHAPTER 1 1. 0 openingToday, com beaters capture increasingly be sustain part of our lives at work, at home, and even when travelling. The growth of Internet has brought about revolution to world daily lives. Internet is non only a big part in research and education these days, but also plays an important role in the intercourse technology. With the Internet, purpose is to fork over easier communication and transfer of information among people around the world. Nowadays, government, private, university, and institution mostly have a web page as a primary source of information for people of all ages to access on it. . 1 BACK GROUND INFORMATION Dau University (ANU) is a member of the ecumenic family of Nazarene institutions affiliated with the Church of the Nazarene founded on the aforesaid(prenominal) principles the development of students in a strong spiritual environment. ANU offers a well-rounded, holistic education to attend to members establish themselves in three important areas as its motto Character Explore your faith for living. Competence Achieve your goals for your career. Community Find your place in the world. It is the first Nazarene University established out berth of the United States.It has been an affiliate of the Council for Christian Colleges & Universities since February 2002. It was established in the year 1994l located on the Maasai plains across Nairobi discipline Park, from the city of Nairobi. 1. 2 PROBLEM STATEMENT Each year, hundreds of students alumna from this university. The common problem faced by faculty is how to keep in touch with their graduate students because there is no system that has been develop to act as a middle person for commu nication among the faculty and the alumni member.Thus, developing an alumni portal for this faculty impart solve the problem. The reason is that a web portal is a central point which anyone deal view information and ser unrighteousnesss towards the community. Virtual communities allow people with common interest to meet, communicate and share bases and information through an online network such as the World Wide Web. Through these activities, participants develop bonds with the members of the community. The main idea of this escort is to provide a visual communication chopine among the alumni and non-alumni (ANU community). 1. 3RATIONALE (JUSTIFICATION) The online situation faced in careers office in tracking ANU alumni instal that the work flow is not under taken efficiently, there is too much time and resources wastage, for example most of the time, head of careers department has to physically go out and try to find ANU alumni out there in order to contact them of which its a waste of time considering having an alumni portal where the alumni themselves signup to the portal providing their contacts and work specify wherever they are regardless of the distance or their geographical location.In terms of, wastage of resources, incumbent system is losing a lot both financially and opportunity wise, since some(prenominal) of well placed alumni cannot be tracked or contacted to serve up in donation or support in remediatement of infrastructure within the university or in any other difficult situation that the university might be facing and need external support. 1. 4 PROPOSED SYSTEM This cast was focusing on web-based application, which as a new forms of interactive media amidst the ANU alumni members and non-alumni members (ANU community).It comprises a collection of information pages, containing both textual and graphic elements and connected with hyperlinks. By develop interactive sites which contain web pages that allow in exchanging information be tween the Web site and user. Additionally, storing updated record of alumni member also been provided. The scope of user involve for this project is the alumni and non-alumni that consist between the ANU administration and student of ANU itself In addition, this portal also open to general public who interested to browse around on veritable information provided.It is to a greater extent of a cordial networking website but one that concentrates or includes only the ANU alumni and ANU community. The system admin get out be able to start a assemblage outcome of which the registered members leave alone be able to post their comments in the forum. Also the admin leave behind be able to delete unclaimed profiles and any kid of unwanted posted material by the members. Admin is also in control of creating student and lectures profile. The system also has the capability of members sending personal messages to one another e. g. alumni to alumni, alumni to admin, students to alumni and vice versa.The alumni are needed to sign up or register by inputting username, cry, Name, Graduation year, Program undertaken, Admission No, Phone No, Email address, Address, actual work and current Job status. Through this, they are able to interact with their former classmates and keep in touch after graduating from the prestigious university. This system leave also spark current students to perform exceptionally so as to be included in the bracket of successful alumni. The careers office and administration forget then have easy access to Alumni contacts and their whereabouts. . 5 SYSTEM OBJECTIVES The main objective of developing this project is to create a system of a middle person entity, allowing alumni members and non-members to communicate virtually. Developing the portal gives a lot of benefits to alumni members, official faculty, students, readers and also general public. The benefit to i. Alumni member Facilitate communication between alumni member and non-member. A communication platform for alumni could support both the information flow among faculty and alumni and among non-alumni.Existing platforms for supporting alumni interaction mainly provide address lists and news for alumni. ii. Administration Faculty allow for an easy way for tracking the alumni. on that pointfore, the faculty can get feedback from their graduate students. Furthermore, it improves contact with the alumni so that having maintained infobase of alumni record. iii. Students Enable alumni share positive career and action experiences with other student. Besides that, the alumni can mentor and advise the students. For example, alumni in certain career field can offer guidance to students who are pursuing the same field of work. v. Lecturers The lecturer is able to exchange information with the alumni member. Therefore, the lecturer may know whether they need to exchange, modify or maintain the contents of the courses. So that they can al ways deliver the right infor mation for their student to fulfil the environment need from time to time. V. General Publics Allow in browsing around to get information or to find old or new friends among the alumni member where the purpose of it is to allow them to get the addresses of the alumni members. 1. 6 SCOPE OF THE SYSTEM.The proposed system will help automate the university operations of getting in touch with the alumni and alumni getting in touch with fellow alumni. The system then i) Provide professional networking through the interaction of all faculty graduates. ii) Facilitate sharing of information with the alumni. iii) Able to inform faculty happenings and events by inviting alumni to remain active in the Alumni Association and involve in faculty activities. iv) Provide updated records of addresses, employment, and other personal information about alumni. ) Provide stable communication between alumni and non-alumni (ANU community). vi) Help in the building of the Dau fraternity in the expansion of this community. vii) Set alumni as examples/role model/mentors to ongoing students. 1. 7 LIMITATIONS. The proposed system requires increased fellowship in IT such as network prudence, database management, html, user support and security, it also require more experiences in this kind of system development. Requires finances for research e. g. internet connection fee etc. 1. 8 BENEFICIARIES Those to benefit most from the new system include ) The careers office the department will be able to get into contact with the alumni since most of their contacts will be in their profile in alumni portal. b) The university administration as a whole, administration will get to know how its own products are doing/performing in the outside world. c) Alumni themselves will benefit by keeping their bond strong and their friendship wont be lost and also maintain close relationship with the university. d) Current students will be able to identify role models from the alumni portal and work to their g oals and objectives in life. 1. 9 THEORETICAL FRAME WORKThe following theories would help deal/come up with the ANU Alumni gate i. e. considering the evolution of the World Wide Web from Web 1. 0 to Web 2. 0 is creating subtle but profound changes in the ways people locate and access information, communicate with, and learn from each other. The changes in technologies are driving changes in human behaviour, interactions, and knowledge acquisition. The paradigms for learning have already evolved beyond traditional classroom models to synchronous and asynchronous, interactive, and collaborative learning, which is further extended by Web 2. gumshoes and social networking approaches. However, recent developments in Web 2. 0 technologies are far outpacing the development of theoretical frameworks for their utilization in education and training. According to Kamel Boulos and Wheeler (2007), the second incarnation of the Web (Web 2. 0) has been called the Social Web because, in line of work to Web 1. 0, its content can be more easily generated and published by users, and the collective intelligence of users encourages more democratic use (p. 2).This Alumni Portal takes a form of social networking of which its the practice of expanding knowledge by making connections with individuals of similar interests. In Web 2. 0 environments social networking is linked to technological service and software that make it possible for people to communicate with others from anywhere, at any time. Social networking refers to sites such as Facebook, MySpace, and Linkedin, where users set up a profile, create semi-formal connections to people they know, communicate, and share preferences and interest.To make an ideal knowledge structure (social structure that can assume responsibility for developing and sharing knowledge) three elements are put unneurotic that is Domain, Community and Practice of which this system integrates to construct the Alumni Portal. The purpose of this syste m is to develop a theoretical framework to understand learning among groups of individuals that utilize social networking applications among the alumni and the university to working towards a common goal i. e. how groups of individuals can occasionally and under particular circumstances cast their thinking into a coherent whole.CHAPTER II literary productions REVIEW 2. 1 INTRODUCTION This chapter discusses detailed descriptions of the alumni portal and similar approaches of virtual communication, comprehensive, and critical discussion of each and other material related to the topic. 2. 2 Global literature review The University of Malaysia known as USM has an alumni portal where the URL is http//www. usm. my/alumni/organisasi_main. asp. In developing the portal it uses Active Server Page (ASP) as server side scripting language together with mark-up language which is HTML. Java Script language uses in order display certain images and other things.The way of designing the portal is no t so interactive, because it does not provide exchange information service between the web site and the user. The portal is more to static type of web site. Alumni web site for Kolej Agama Sultan Zainal Abidin is known as Laman Web Ex KUSZA (http//www. geocities. com/ex_kuzsa) from the website address, the web has been developing by using templates in Yahoo Geocities run. It offers very limited services and more to static web site. This web site does not have database because it does not involve storing data. 2. 3 Regional literature reviewAfter regional research on alumni portal, I came across the University Of Johannesburg Alumni Portal of which the developing of the portal uses Active Sever (ASP) as server side scripting language together with HTML. The portal design in home page consist of mixed use of fonts of which down grade the rating of the portal but for its functioning and its categories content is well fitted but it does not involve storing of data world one of its maj or lack. 2. 4 Local literature review After local research in several universities, no university within the country has an alumni portal.For example the University of Nairobi contains only description of what its alumni are but no porthole or a way of interaction between its alumni and the university or interaction between its fellow alumni. (http//www. uonbi. ac. ke/node/132). It does not include data base what so ever 2. 5 Summary This chapter identified several literature reviews that related to alumni portal. Much of the literatures on portal are reporting descriptive personal experiences, not theoretical analyses. With developing portal that act as a one stop destination where all part of users use starting point to other resources on internet or intranet.Typically, this portal will provide many services such as search engine or directory, news, maps, email, forums and private messaging for university and the graduates students who will use portal to gather together all the i nformation to share with other, furthermore, is keep in touch with each other. ? CHAPTERIII RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3. 1 INTRODUCTION This chapter is explanation on method and process used for research and system requirements needed for the development of the alumni portal for ANU, all of the information used for collecting research methodology. 3. 2 Locality of the ProjectThe project is being carried out at ANU, in CIS department section of system development desk. The proposed system will be web-based hence located/posted on the internet in ANU website with its. it will the students to understand material given, review sessions, and participate in conversations with lecturers. 3. 3 Population The population being focused on this system includes ANU students, its alumni and the lecturer basically the ANU community of approximately 5,000 people inclusive of all the campuses. Students who can be divided into day scholars and boarders, lecturers who are divided into part time and respec table time lecturers. . 4 Research techniques 3. 4. 1 Sampling method Sampling is, the process of collecting examples of the actual documents (Systems Analysis and Design, 2010). The sampling method that will be used in this project system is the systematic random sampling of students which will involve selecting every tenth student for review so as to collect feedback concerning the proposed system in order to know what should be included and what should be discarded from the system. Undertaking sampling will also help to improve the effectiveness of information that will be obtained to be more accurate. . 4. 2 Interviews This will involve interviewing ANU community as whole i. e. current students, lecturers, ANU alumni and individuals that have knowledge on alumni, in order to evaluate their needs and preferences so that one can plan the best methods to use in the undertaking of his or her project in order to suit their needs. 3. 4. 3 Literature study This will involve consulting relevant ANU publications such as books, magazines and web pages that contain information of topic of the project inquiry and the relevant solution to the problem that one or that I will want to tackle.This will enable me to make a project that will ensure that all user needs are meet according to their preferences. 3. 4. 4 Observation This is a fact-finding technique that involves systematically selecting of ANU environment, ceremonial and recording behavior and characteristics of objects or phenomena found within ANU community, seeing the system in action will give an additional perspective and a bump understanding on the systems procedure. This will allow the verifying of statements that will be made from interviews and determine whether the systems procedures will really operate as described.Observation will provide the knowledge needed to test or install future changes in the proposed system. 3. 5 The Platform The System will be developed using a web application and databases . The content in our web application will be connected to a database. So the idea here is getting data into a database so that we can use it in our web application. The focus here will be bridging between the table schemas of a database and running them on web application and vice versa. 3. 5. 1 MySQL This provides a platform to develop the proposed systems database.MySQL is ideal for record storage from different platforms. It also has the capability of handling macro system records. 3. 5. 2 PHP According to Mike McGrath (2002), he defines that PHP can be used to create interactive dynamic websites and is rapidly gaining in popularity because it is flexible, cross platform technology that provides amazingly powerful features. PHP can be used to dynamically generate the HTML law for a web page. PHP is embedded into the HTML code with the use of special tags, called Deli meters. By using the deli meters, many sections of PHP code are able to add to an HTML document.Embedding PHP co de in HTML code makes it possible to enhance existing web pages on a web site. (Paul Whitehead, Joel Desamero, 2000). 3. 5. 3 HTML In computing, Hypertext Markup Language (HTML) is a Markup Language intentional for the creation of web pages and other information viewable in a browser. The focus of HTML is on the presentation of information-paragraphs, fonts, italics, tables e. t. c. 3. 5. 4 CASE Tools These are electronic computer aided software engineering tools that enables the developers to represent the system in form of flow charts, graphs and data flow diagrams CHAPTER IV SYSTEM ANALYSIS 4. 1 INTRODUCTION This is a step-bystep process for developing high-quality information systems (Systems Analysis and Design, 2010). In order to carry out system analysis researchers had to perform system analysis which basically is carrying out feasibility studies of the school. These include 4. 1. 1 Technical Feasibility This includes an investigation of the technical resources of the ANU . The university IT department is not well established and it lacks enough man power and resources to support the system.The department has only nine computers, of which all of them are outdated thus the need to purchase more IT resources that will be able to withstand the proposed system. 4. 1. 2 Economic Feasibility This investigates the projected benefits of the proposed system outweighing the estimated cost usually considering the total cost of ownership. The proposed automated department system process will require some system maintenance cost. Budget ITEMSPRICE System analyst/IT consultantsKsh. 20,000 p. m 4 Computers Pentium ivKsh. 120,000 Adobe Flash media streaming server 4. 5Ksh. 30,400 Network interface cardsKsh. 9,000Adobe CS 5packageKsh. 60,000 TotalKsh. 239,400 4. 1. 3 Operational Feasibility This means that the proposed system will be used effectively after it has been developed. With the support of the IT department and the alumni who are account players in the prop osed system will be used effectively. With the alumni portal the image of ANU will improve in terms of being a head in technology field and efficiency. 4. 1. 4 Schedule Feasibility This information system project is to be completed in 8weeks time. In this time we will be able to have completed the development of the project and tested it. 4. 2 Implementation PlanThe project is expected to take approximately 12 weeks in total. There are a total of 9 tasks that need to be implemented. The tasks have been grouped under each of the project objectives. This is as shown in the table to a lower place TASKSDUTY System planningThis will involve analyzing, defining and coming up with a time schedule of the project which will be done by the developer. preliminary InvestigationThis will involve determining if the projects system proposal is worth pursing into analysis phase AnalysisAt this stage a detailed study of the current system in use will be undertaken that will lead to specifications of the new system.This will be done by a system analyst. DesignDesign will be based on the user requirements and the detailed analysis of the new system tools such as flowcharts, use case diagrams will be used. ImplementationThis is the changeover of theory to practical analysis. During this stage, all the programs of the system will be loaded on to the users computer also the testing of the system will be undertaken. this will be done by a technician consultant Testing and InstallationThe system will be tested and errors and bugs will be checkered in order to create a perfect system.The change of the system will be direct change over-where the current system will be immediately replaced by the new system. PresentationThis is the last stage whereby I will present my project by explaining the processes, development, and approach about my project in detail. CHAPTER V 5. 1 SYSTEM DESIGN 5. 1 Use case diagram According to Shelly Rosenblatt a use case diagram visually represents the in teraction between users and an information system. The different actors in the proposed system will be the Administrator, Alumni, Students and Lecturer. ? 5. 2 Flow ChartA flow chart will show the flow of the data from the time the Alumni, Student, Lecturer and Administrator will be registering to the system to the time they finalize their process. 5. 3 Flow Diagrams (DFDs) They will be used in the proposed system to show the flow of the data collected from the time a alumni will register into the system and processed. The main entities will be the alumni, the student and the administrator. There will also be processes and data stores which will process and store data respectively. a) Level 0 Diagram ? a) Level1 diagram CHAPTER VI 6. 1 CODING AND TESTING i) main office page Welcome to Dau University Alumni PortalWelcome to Dau University Alumni Portal ANU Alumni Home Register Login User Info Edit Profile Search Alumni Directory Logout Contact Us Forum Welcome to Dau University A lumni Portal Membership to this Portal is only available to ANU alumni. In order to take advantage of all that your community has to offer, you must register to establish a User ID and password. You only need to register for the community once. When you return on future visits, Enter your User ID and password when prompted. Features Find your Friends and Former School mates on ANU Alumni Portal Join the ANU Alumni nbspSearch the Alumni Directory Change your Address Check out the latest issues Alumni Update ii) Registering of Alumni ANU Alumni Sign Up Form Welcome to Dau University Alumni Portal ANU alumni Home Register Login User Info Edit Profile Search Alumni Directory Logout Contact Us Forum ANU Alumni Sign Up Form (Please Fill Form Correctly)Username Password Name Year Please Select Year Program Please Select Program Session Department Admission No Phone no Current Postion Job Status Address E mail iii) Login iv) Forum page ? CONCLUSION The ANU Alumni Portal can provide significant benefits to alumni relationship management programme and play a key role in terms of,. An online community portal, such as GradNet, should be a dynamic, ever-changing information tool that constantly adapts according to its target audiences information needs.It is therefore pivotal that continuous needs assessments of these alumni system is digested. The ever-changing ways of how people conduct their lives need to be considered and explored if alumni portal want to come up with innovative ideas and programme that will accommodate and capitalize on these trends. If alumni organizations manage to create more value for their customers, the percentage of active participants, as well as the quality of alumni interaction in support of the institution, will improve. ? REFERENCES

In Cold Blood by Truman Capote Essay

In Cold stock A True Account of Multiple Murder and Its Consequences by Truman Capote dilate the social arena that molded Dick Hickock and Perry Smith into criminals and killingers. The power wrote of how Hickock was brought up in a loving home with a stable family but suffered from noetic illness. Perry on the other hand, had alcoholic parents in a very unloving atmosphere, uneducated and suffered from depression. Each was influenced by society differently but the result was the same. The author details their stories from the beginning of their criminal history up to their execution for the murder of the Clutter family. The question is, was Perry a instinctive born killer.In an name in psychological science Today there is evidence that activity or lack of in the prefrontal cortex of the brain region are associated with acts of murder. This prefrontal cortex activity is also associated with a wide range of behaviors such as risk taking, rule breaking, aggression and impulsivi ty that can lead to violence. This evidence has a great value in maybe creating a way for society to possibly point out problem individuals and possible treatment or saloon of criminal activity such as murder. The article goes on to say that perhaps this is a way to point to biological differences or the possibility of natural born killers (Raine 10).In some ways Truman Capote could relate to Perry because both had terrible experiences growing up. The author was intrigued as to why Perry would go on to kill and he didnt. Capote wrote that possible social consequences made the difference possibly grooming Perry to be a killer and some professionals agree sociologist are non satisfied with the explanations that are rooted in biology and personality. They point to the perspective of symbolic interaction that each of us interprets life through symbols that we learn (Henslin 133). Sociologist Edwin Sutherland stressed that people learn deviance. He uses the term differential associati on to indicate that we learn to deviate or to conform to societys norms mostly by the people we associate with. But if this is correct then why does some with the same interaction kill and others do not?In my opinion there are people who are born natural killers. It is something that is innate within some individuals and is nurtured by society to its final display. In my belief some individuals impart be born a killer and some exit not. Society takes this innate trait and shapes them even more, or even less, towards the direction of their innate features. The grade of their actions is my proof. Take hunting some individuals can hunt and some cannot. This is an example of the innate trait for killing expressed in killing for food sooner than killing another human.Degree is how society grooms each killer, the hunter and the murderer, to their final ends. Because traits are passed from parent to child that is why some societies are prone to curb more killers than others and what de gree the acts are committed is influenced by each of the societies they live in. The degree of the trait is what society uses for determining how wrong the act is and how that individual will be punished. Evil is solely influenced and decided by the society one lives in. Killing is inevitable for some individuals it is to what degree that makes the difference.ReferenceCapote, Truman. In Cold Blood A True Account of a Multiple Murder and Its Consequences. New York Signet Books, 1965.Henslin, James M. Essentials of Sociology A Down to Earth Approach. Boston Allyn and Bacon, 2000.Raine, A. Natural born Killers? Psychology Today 28(1), p.10, 1995 Jan/Feb.